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ERM Criteria Model

 

A.     Determining Likelihood

LikelihoodNot likelyLow likelihoodModerately likelyHighly likelyExpected
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Description
("The risk is expected to materialize….")

Every 5 years or less

and/or

very low  chance (<20%) of materializing

Every 3-5 years

and/or

low chance (20% - 40%) of materializing

Every 1-3 years

and/or

chance of materializing between 40% - 60%

Once or twice a year

and/or

high chance of materializing (60% - 80%)

Several times a year

and/or

chance of materializing above 80%

 

B.      Determining Impact: Project Level

ImpactNegligibleMinorIntermediateExtensiveExtreme
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Description

("If the risk materializes,….")

Negligible/no impact on project results, positive or negative. Negligible or no potential adverse impacts on people and/or environment.5-20 % of the applicable and planned results  affected, positively or negatively. Potential adverse impacts on people and/or environment very limited and easily managed. 20-30% of the applicable and planned results affected positively or negatively. Potential adverse impacts on people and/or environment of low magnitude, limited in scale and duration, can be avoided, managed or mitigated with accepted measures.30-50% of the applicable and planned results/outcome affected positively or negatively. Potential adverse impacts on people and/or environment of medium to large magnitude, spatial extent and duration. More than 5O% of the applicable and planned results/outcome affected positively or negatively. Adverse impacts on people and/or environment of high magnitude, spatial extent and/or duration.

 

C.      Determining Impact: Programme/Unit and Corporate Levels

 

The analyses of potential consequences for the organization are conducted for each risk. Overall risk IMPACT is then determined based on the highest level of impact.

 

Impact

​NegligibleMinorIntermediateExtensiveExtreme
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Description of consequence

 

Financial

(absolute and relative)

Estimated range in USD, 3 numbers:

  • Maximum (highest level of potential deviation, +/-))
  • Likely (best guess)
  • Minimum (lowest level of potential deviation, +/-) )

which, based on best guess figure, corresponds to:

​​​​
​​<5 % deviation from applicable budget5-20 % deviation from  applicable budget20-30% deviation from applicable budget30-50% deviation from  applicable budget>50% deviation from  applicable budget
​Development resultsNegligible/no impact on results/outcome, positive or negative5-20 %  of the applicable and planned results/outcome affected, positively or negatively 20-30% of the applicable and planned results/outcome affected, positively or negatively 30-50% of the applicable and planned results/outcome affected, positively or negativelyMore than 5O% of the applicable and planned results/outcome affected, positively or negatively
​Operations  Delay or acceleration of applicable operations by 1-2 days Delay or acceleration of applicable operations 2-7 daysDelay or acceleration of applicable operations 1-4 weeksDelay or acceleration of applicable operations for one month or longer Permanent shift in applicable operations
​ComplianceNegligible deviation from applicable rules and regulationsModerate deviation from applicable rules and regulationsDeviation from applicable rules and regulationsSignificant deviation from applicable rules and regulationsMajor deviation from applicable rules and regulations
​Safety & Security

No Effect on UNDP Personnel,

and/or

No effect on UNDP Operations and programmes

Slightly Injurious Effect on UNDP Personnel

and/or

injuries to general population directly or indirectly caused by UNDP actions

Moderately Injurious or Psychologically Traumatic Effect and/or

major injuries to general population directly or indirectly caused by UNDP actions

Fatal (individual or small numbers), Severely Injurious or Severely Psychologically Traumatic Effect

and/or

loss of life to general population directly or indirectly caused by UNDP actions

Catastrophically Fatal Effect (mass casualties)

and/or

loss of life to general population directly or indirectly caused by UNDP actions

​ReputationIsolated negative or positive comments from external stakeholdersSeveral negative or positive comments from external stakeholders

Negative or positive reports/articles in national, regional

and/or international media

Negative or positive reports/articles in several national, regional

and/or international media for a period of a week or more, and/or criticism from key stakeholders

Negative or positive reports/articles in several national, regional

and/or international media for a period of a month or more, and/or strong criticism from key stakeholders